How do you predict a satellite reentry?

As an object's orbit decays, its altitude drops on every pass. Cosmik reads live orbital elements (TLEs) from the public CelesTrak/NORAD catalogue and propagates each one with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate. Below about 260 km, drag is winning and reentry is a days-to-weeks story. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window solution.

How accurate are reentry predictions?

Reentry timing is genuinely hard: atmospheric drag varies with solar activity, so even hours before reentry the window can span several orbits. Cosmik gives a coarse, honest window (days / days-to-weeks / weeks-to-months) — useful for knowing something is coming down, not for pinpointing the exact minute or place.

Will a reentering satellite hit the ground?

Almost always, no. The overwhelming majority of satellites burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball. Only large or dense objects leave fragments that reach the surface, and the odds of debris reaching any given person are vanishingly small.

Satellite reentries — what's coming down right now

Q: Which satellites are about to reenter?

As of October 2026, Cosmik lists 32 active objects below 260 km — the altitude at which atmospheric drag starts winning. The lowest right now is STARLINK-1171 at about 96 km. This list refreshes automatically as fresh orbital data arrives.

32 active objects below 260 km — live altitude, decay trend and a rough reentry window.

Which satellites are about to reenter? Below is the live list of the lowest active objects Cosmik is tracking — everything currently under 260 km, where atmospheric drag starts winning and a reentry becomes a days-to-weeks story. Each object has its own page with live altitude and a decay trend. Want a heads-up before the next one comes down? Get free reentry alerts.

Ready to paste

“As of October 2026, 32 active objects in orbit are below 260 km and expected to reenter — the lowest, STARLINK-1171, is at ~96 km. Data: Cosmik (gocosmik.com), CC-BY 4.0”

gocosmik.com/reentry#candidates

Reentry candidates right now

Object	NORAD	Altitude	Trend	Reentry window
STARLINK-1171	45062	~96 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-31495	59313	~100 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4442	53480	~107 km	descending	likely within days
STARLINK-1433	45711	~113 km	falling fast	likely within days
SITRO-AIS 44	61748	~123 km	slowly decaying	likely within days
STARLINK-30224	57416	~128 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4408	53206	~134 km	slowly decaying	likely within days
STARLINK-1448	45665	~150 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4049	52840	~163 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-5041	53891	~166 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1407	45703	~170 km	slowly decaying	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-4464	53669	~171 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-30239	57291	~182 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-4454	53499	~187 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-1337	45582	~194 km	slowly decaying	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-30233	57302	~198 km	descending	days to a few weeks
SITRO-AIS 41	61760	~205 km	descending	days to a few weeks
STARLINK-5701	55487	~208 km	falling fast	likely within days
SDX01	62459	~213 km	descending	days to a few weeks
SDX02	62460	~214 km	falling fast	likely within days
COSMOS 2572	58435	~222 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1810	46709	~223 km	descending	days to a few weeks
ZHUQUE-2E R/B	69095	~223 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1297	45395	~225 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-11747 [DTC]	64322	~226 km	falling fast	likely within days
STARLINK-1305	45377	~230 km	falling fast	likely within days
SITRO-AIS 42	61756	~230 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
STARLINK-4607	53740	~231 km	falling fast	likely within days
JILIN-1 GAOFEN 03D43	53448	~243 km	falling fast	likely within days
JILIN-1 GAOFEN 3H	46460	~254 km	falling fast	likely within days
BANDWAGON-2 OBJECT AE	62405	~258 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months
2023-091AS	57206	~259 km	slowly decaying	weeks to a few months

Sorted by altitude — the lowest object is closest to reentry. Data: live CelesTrak/NORAD orbital elements, propagated now with SGP4. Updated October 2026.

How reentry predictions work

Every satellite feels a faint atmospheric drag. As an object's altitude drops, each orbit gets a little lower and a little faster, until it dips deep enough into the atmosphere to burn up. Cosmik reads the same live orbital data behind the 3D map, propagates each object with SGP4 to get its current altitude and 24-hour decay rate, and lists everything below 260 km here. This is a drag-threshold heuristic, not a precise window — atmospheric density swings with solar activity, so real reentry timing can move by hours or days. We show a deliberately coarse window and say so on every page.

What happens when they come down

The overwhelming majority of these objects burn up completely, sometimes as a bright, slow fireball crossing the sky. Only large or dense pieces reach the ground, almost always over ocean or empty land. Read what happens when satellites fall for why most burn up and what (rarely) survives, or see the bigger picture on how much space debris is in orbit.

Get notified before the next reentry

Don't want to keep checking? Turn on reentry alerts and Cosmik will send a free push or email when an object is predicted to fall — with the current window and a link to follow it live. More on how it works: satellite reentry alerts.

Explore the live data

Watch any of these objects descend on the live satellite tracker, browse the full satellite database, see how many satellites are in orbit, or read what happens when satellites fall.